As a number of months of US-led diplomacy have failed to dealer a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine, the Kremlin has used the time to massively ramp up aerial assaults on Kyiv and different Ukrainian cities.
Russia nearly doubled its month-to-month totals of missiles and drones fired at Ukraine between December 2024 and Could 2025, based on figures compiled by the Armed Battle Location & Occasion Information Undertaking, or ACLED.
The numbers elevated each month going from 1,269 in December to 2,436 in Could.
The US-based ACLED recorded 2,110 strikes between June 1 and June 27, however this doesn’t embrace air strikes final weekend which Kyiv mentioned had been the biggest of the struggle to date.
Official figures supplied by the Ukrainian Air Drive put the numbers even increased. It mentioned Russia fired a report 5,438 drones in June.
A 16-Fold Improve In Drone Assaults
It is a roughly 25 % improve in contrast with Could 2024, and a 16-fold improve in contrast with June 2024. The figures additionally present missile assaults nearly doubling in the identical interval.
Russia’s ongoing aerial assault has induced lots of of deaths each month, together with many civilian casualties.
One of many components behind the growing scale of assaults is that Russia has steeply elevated drone manufacturing. The Ukrainian authorities estimates that Russia is now in a position to manufacture some 5,000 drones monthly.
This contains modernized variations of Iranian Shahed drones that are higher at evading Ukrainian defenses.
“[Russian drones] now use a extra highly effective warhead. We see that they’ve modified the design and a few electronics due to the completely different warhead,” Oleksandr Vysikan of the Kyiv Analysis Institute of Forensic Examinations mentioned.
Extra Assaults Are Getting By Air Protection
Because the variety of Russian drones and missiles launched has elevated, Ukraine’s interception price has dropped.
It fell from 95 % in June 2024 to 79 % in June of this yr for drones and from 74 % to 50 % for missiles, based on figures revealed by Ukraine’s Air Drive, which is chargeable for air protection.
Giant drone swarms, together with decoy drones with out warheads, additionally assist to overwhelm Ukrainian defensive capability.
Ukrainian army analyst Vladyslav Seleznyov instructed RFE/RL’s Russian Service that air protection in Kyiv has been unable to deal with assaults involving 300 or extra drones.
Seleznyov mentioned that Ukraine’s finest type of protection could also be assault, citing latest Ukrainian drone strikes on targets deep inside Russia.
“For my part, assaults on Russia’s military-industrial advanced can have the largest impact,” he mentioned.
“That is exhibiting good outcomes. However these strikes have to be stepped up,” added Seleznyov, who was previously a spokesman for the Ukrainian army.
A Unhealthy Time For Washington To Halt Patriot Provides
Issues concerning the upward development in assaults have been exacerbated by Washington saying it was halting some arms provides to Kyiv.
This contains Patriot air protection missiles, based on US media reviews.
The Trump administration mentioned a Pentagon overview of US army assist to different nations all over the world had decided that US stockpiles of sure weapons had declined an excessive amount of.
A call was made to “put America’s pursuits first” following the Protection Division’s overview, mentioned White Home spokeswoman Anna Kelly in a press release.
Zelenskyy mentioned he raised this difficulty in a July 4 telephone name with Trump.
“We mentioned the chances of air protection and agreed that we are going to work on growing the safety of the sky,” he wrote on Telegram.
“We agreed on a corresponding assembly of our groups,” he added.
There was no instant remark from Washington.
The day prior to this, Zelenskyy introduced a deal to collectively produce drones, together with interceptors, with a US firm.
A number of European nations have additionally equipped air protection techniques, together with the German IRIS-T and Gepard weapons.
A lot of Ukraine’s protection towards drones is predicated not on refined anti-aircraft missile techniques, however on troopers utilizing machine weapons mounted on their automobiles.
Their weapons are in a position to hit targets at a spread of about 2,500 meters, whereas the Russian drones now typically fly at 3,000 meters or extra.
One other aspect of Ukraine’s air protection is its fighter plane. Ukraine is believed to have round 85 US-made F-16 jets in addition to Soviet-made Sukhoi jets.
Throughout the mass assault on June 29, the Ukrainian Air Drive mentioned US-made F-16 jets shot down “dozens” of incoming targets.
One pilot, Maksym Ustymenko, reportedly shot down seven targets earlier than his jet was broken. Ustymenko was killed when the jet crashed as he didn’t have time to eject.
