EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — The “quickest approach for Russia to penetrate our naval defenses is steaming from the Arctic to the North Atlantic.” The Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) Hole is the final place allied forces “have any hope of detecting a Russian sub earlier than it’s within the huge Atlantic barreling towards New York.” These insightful feedback had been spoken not by President Donald Trump however by fictional President Grace Penn in Netflix’s The Diplomat. In contrast Trump’s rhetoric and makes an attempt to achieve leverage on Denmark have been appalling and unhelpful. However Trump and “President Penn” are each proper about one factor — though the Arctic island is distant, Greenland’s location makes it elementary to U.S. and NATO naval intelligence and missile protection missions.
Russia is aware of this as effectively and is utilizing the Trump-inspired kerfuffle to drive a disinformation narrative meant to additional weaken Euro-Atlantic relations. Kremlin-aligned sources have been circulating social media posts suggesting that Western help to Ukraine has weakened European nations and that weaponry dedicated to Kyiv could also be redistributed to Greenland. A deepfake of a Danish newscaster stating that Denmark plans to recall all F-16s given to Ukraine to be redeployed to Greenland was circulated by Russian affect accounts and obtained over 45.3K views on X.
One other video, which obtained over 254.3K views on X, imitated the Institute for the Research of Conflict and claimed that Europeans siding with Ukraine in 2022 is costing them Greenland now and that NATO can be destroyed quickly, thereby forcing Europeans to align with Moscow. This Russian tactic of riffing off respectable assume tanks and information channels to validate Russian lies is important to creating their false pro-Kremlin narratives seem extra credible and improve the chance of their posts spreading throughout social media.
Moscow is making an attempt to make use of the divide between the USA and Europe to sow confusion, degrade assist for Ukraine, and rupture NATO. What Putin forgets is that disagreements between allies are frequent and constructively overcoming them builds stronger relationships. The strategic significance of Greenland calls for the alliance work by way of its disagreement.
There are vital the explanation why Russia is making an attempt so arduous to separate NATO over Greenland. Nuuk holds vital naval intelligence worth. Moscow’s Northern Fleet and nuclear submarine HQ are on the Kola Peninsula, situated close to the Russia-Finland border. For Russian (RU) forces to succeed in the North and Baltic Seas, and past into the North Atlantic Ocean, RU submarines should transit by way of the GIUK Hole; making the 2 stretches of water crucial for monitoring RU subsea exercise, simply as “President Penn” demonstrated.
Furthermore, the rising partnership between Beijing and Moscow within the Arctic and China’s growing curiosity within the area over the previous decade ought to elevate crimson flags for NATO. In 2018, China launched their first Arctic white paper, wherein they referred to as themselves a “near-Arctic state” and detailed a need to determine a “polar silk street.” Since then, China and Russia have carried out quite a few joint air and naval patrols in Arctic waters. Coordination between U.S. adversaries within the Excessive North locations a good increased worth on NATO Arctic maritime intelligence capabilities.
Greenland can also be strategically essential for missile protection operations. Nuuk is a chief location for American early warning techniques to trace intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with trajectories that arch over the Excessive North. The Pentagon presently operates a wide range of early warning radars and communications techniques at Pituffik Area Base in Greenland. These radars work in tandem with techniques in Alaska and Canada to offer important early warning capabilities for U.S. missile protection.
ICBMs launched by Moscow can attain the USA in roughly 40 minutes, providing the Pentagon’s command and management facilities, and the president himself, extraordinarily restricted time to detect, resolve, and reply. This mission set will develop as Russia develops long-range standard hypersonic missiles that will even use a Excessive North flight route.
Prioritizing and increasing U.S. navy radar and communication techniques in Greenland will definitely be a part of the “underlayer” parts of the Golden Dome missile protection effort, permitting for Russian missiles of all varieties to be detected earlier and supply U.S. and Canadian warfighters further response time.
Russia will at all times be a malevolent actor and adversary within the Excessive North, and the Kremlin will make the most of any benefit and division amongst Arctic allies to sow disinformation, destabilize alliance efforts, and advance its personal pursuits. Though the political particularities of Nuuk lie within the palms of Greenland, Denmark, and the USA, the geostrategic and deterrence worth of the island is shared amongst all NATO allies; and must be an element that unifies and strengthens the alliance, not one thing that divides Western companions and advances adversarial pursuits.
Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery (U.S. Navy, ret.) is the Senior Director of the Middle on Cyber and Know-how Innovation and Senior Fellow on the Basis for Protection of Democracies (FDD), the place Emmerson Overell is a challenge coordinator.
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