Nelson: Smith should persuade wavering Conservatives she deserves votes

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The upcoming provincial election will boil right down to a selection between religion and expertise for a lot of longtime Conservative voters in Calgary.

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It’s that cohort who will resolve whether or not Danielle Smith or Rachel Notley claims the premier’s chair in a number of weeks.

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The agricultural and Edmonton ridings can be a lock for the UCP and NDP respectively. It’s been that manner for months and there’s little that would occur earlier than the Could 29 vote to vary that establishment.

So, it comes right down to Calgary: a metropolis that’s been Conservative blue for many years, solely surrendering a few of that assist within the 2015 election when the PCs and Wildrose events cut up the vote, permitting the NDP a toehold.

After all, Jason Kenney subsequently managed to convey these two warring factions collectively below a United Conservative banner, although he may want he hadn’t bothered given his eventual destiny. However for this election, it’s a straight, two-way battle for energy the place, not like in Edmonton, Notley’s crew doesn’t have a pure energy base in our metropolis from which to work.

That’s why they’re publicly interesting to Conservative voters nonetheless not sure of Smith as premier to return over to the orange tent, possibly for the primary time. Until this technique succeeds, the arithmetic doesn’t work and the UCP will triumph. (The NDP should flip its three Calgary seats into at the very least 18 of the 26 on supply to have a practical likelihood of forming authorities.)

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Nonetheless, the expertise of the earlier NDP regime nonetheless provides many Calgarians critical qualms about supporting them. The imposition of a provincial carbon tax, when no such measure was talked about within the election marketing campaign, is a reminder that what Notley may promise in a marketing campaign might be lower than what we’re fed as soon as her social gathering is in energy.

Then there’s the allegiance to the nationwide social gathering, one the place Chief Jagmeet Singh continues to backstop Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s minority authorities whereas displaying little however scorn for Alberta’s power trade. The social gathering Notley belongs to isn’t a separate provincial outfit however an affiliate of the nationwide NDP. Can she be trusted to place our province’s wants earlier than the edicts arising from the nationwide social gathering?

So if Calgary Conservatives have critical qualms about crossing the political Rubicon and voting NDP after experiencing their first provincial authorities, then how might Calgary even be in play as this election’s important battleground? Isn’t a UCP victory a slam dunk?

Besides there’s Danielle Smith. As Hamlet would say: “Ay, there’s the rub.”

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As a result of, regardless of the policy-a-day bulletins from every social gathering, what the 2023 provincial election rests upon is how a lot common Conservative voters — those that aren’t social gathering devoted however invariably lean towards the Conservatives — belief Smith.

It’s that easy. The diehards aren’t going to modify camp and there aren’t sufficient common NDP supporters in Calgary to make a critical inroad into all these UCP seats. It’s the wavering Conservatives who maintain the important thing.

That’s most likely why controversial points such because the notorious Sovereignty Act, together with the abolishment of the Canada Pension Plan and RCMP in favour of provincial replacements are receiving little airing from Smith through the marketing campaign. As a substitute, it’s been about promising cash for well being care, cash for infrastructure, cash for police and a pleasant minimize to earnings tax into the cut price.

But, it was her assist of these extra controversial points that landed Smith the premier’s job six months in the past. Has she determined to not dance with those who introduced her to energy?

Or are these points — ones that make many Conservatives queasy — solely on maintain till the voting’s completed? Do longtime Conservative voters hope for the perfect and vote for Smith, or overlook the expertise of the primary Notley authorities and provides the NDP their assist?

We’ll discover out quickly sufficient. What a crackerjack election that is turning into.